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GradedCalls

Weekend doom@yieldyak

Demo call

Yield Yak

@yieldyak · Rates

bullishTLTmedium conviction

Reference TLT ($82.21)

If the doom bid is real, bonds catch it toward 83.36. Cut 81.22.

  • TLT target 83.36
  • TLT invalidation 81.22

Named tickers: TLT

Graded on the SPY, QQQ, and DIA average, plus VIX.

Posted Saturday, September 5 at 8:00 AM ET inside the collect window.

TLT 20+ Year Treasury ETFFriday session close, Monday noon, then the official closes
Fri refWed closeFri close
  • Fri ref82.21
  • Mon openNot graded yet
  • Mon noonNot graded yet
  • Wed close81.73
  • Fri close80.87

Weekend reference is the prior Friday Yahoo Finance regular-session close for SPY, QQQ, DIA, and VIX. Monday's gap uses the regular-session open. Monday noon is the open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar. Wednesday and Friday use the official daily close (4:00 PM ET, or 1:00 PM ET on an early close). A closed session or a close that is not due yet is left blank.

Settled grades

The words do not change. Each settled horizon rescores this call against recorded prints measured from Friday's regular-session close.

  1. Same week, at the close

    Wed close

    4:00 PM ET

    Wed closeTLT($81.73)−0.6%against call

    Rank 11 of 19

    Market-1.08%against callsigned -1.08% · VIX +13.28%

    • Direction vs the market0/50
    • Levels16/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor0/15
    Open the Wed close board

  2. Same week, final close

    Fri close

    4:00 PM ET

    Fri closeTLT($80.87)−1.6%against call

    Rank 16 of 19

    Market-0.96%against callsigned -0.96% · VIX +9.02%

    • Direction vs the market3/50
    • Levels2/20
    • Specificity12/15
    • VIX factor0/15
    Open the Fri close board
Not graded yet

These horizons are not graded: the market was closed for Labor Day.

  • Friday close to the open

    Monday open

    Not graded yet · market closed for Labor Day (Mon Sep 7), no Monday open or noon print, so this stays ungraded.

    Monday gap, Friday regular-session close to the 9:30 AM ET open is not published. Monday, September 7, 2026 was Labor Day. SPY, QQQ, and DIA have no regular-hours open and no 12:00 PM ET bar. Monday's gap and noon grades are left blank. Yahoo also printed a VIX daily bar that day and no noon bar; that bar is not used. The book is already 49% conviction-weighted bullish. No new calls are added between readouts.

  • Open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar

    Monday noon

    Not graded yet · market closed for Labor Day (Mon Sep 7), no Monday open or noon print, so this stays ungraded.

    Monday 12:00 PM ET weekend-noise grade is not published. Monday, September 7, 2026 was Labor Day. SPY, QQQ, and DIA have no regular-hours open and no 12:00 PM ET bar. Monday's gap and noon grades are left blank. Yahoo also printed a VIX daily bar that day and no noon bar; that bar is not used. The book is already 49% conviction-weighted bullish. No new calls are added between readouts.

Open what is not graded for this week