DEMO

Doom versus melt-up

A demo weekend book: crash and sell-the-open posts beside euphoric melt-up calls. Grades use the Friday, August 21 cash close, Monday's noon print, and the Wednesday and Friday official closes.

Collect Wednesday, August 19 at 12:00 PM ET through Sunday, August 23 at 5:00 PM ET. Readout week of Aug 24.

Monday regular-session open vs Friday session close

SPY
764.78
-0.12%
DIA
531.83
-0.07%
QQQ
709.66
-0.53%
VIX
15.90
+5.09%

AAPL
311.47
+0.69%
IWM
299.55
-0.14%
MSFT
483.21
-0.01%
NVDA
215.53
+0.38%
TLT
82.49
+0.54%

Monday 12:00 PM ET print vs Friday session close

SPY
764.52
-0.16%
DIA
533.95
+0.33%
QQQ
707.98
-0.77%
VIX
15.71
+3.83%

AAPL
311.68
+0.75%
IWM
298.46
-0.50%
MSFT
489.34
+1.26%
NVDA
210.24
-2.09%
TLT
82.61
+0.68%

Wednesday official close vs Friday session close

SPY
766.08
+0.05%
DIA
534.23
+0.38%
QQQ
711.37
-0.29%
VIX
15.21
+0.53%

AAPL
313.45
+1.33%
IWM
298.93
-0.34%
MSFT
496.37
+2.72%
NVDA
209.66
-2.36%
TLT
83.30
+1.52%

Friday official close vs Friday session close

SPY
769.35
+0.47%
DIA
535.06
+0.53%
QQQ
716.43
+0.42%
VIX
14.43
-4.63%

AAPL
319.70
+3.35%
IWM
295.75
-1.40%
MSFT
513.53
+6.27%
NVDA
217.55
+1.32%
TLT
82.88
+1.01%

Weekend reference is the prior Friday Yahoo Finance regular-session close for SPY, QQQ, DIA, and VIX. Monday's gap uses the regular-session open. Monday noon is the open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar. Wednesday and Friday use the official daily close (4:00 PM ET, or 1:00 PM ET on an early close). A closed session or a close that is not due yet is left blank.

Weekend Noise Index

Share of this weekend's calls tagged panic, crash, or selloff, next to the equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA move from Friday's regular-session close. Descriptive only. Not a score.

53% panic · 47% melt-up

Engagement-weighted panic share 56%.

Monday open
-0.24%
Monday noon
-0.20%
VIX at the open
+5.09%
VIX at noon
+3.83%

Settled grades

Watchlist and viral posts share this weekly board. Each card shows the Monday noon, Wednesday close, and Friday close prices, plus one GC Scale grade.

Dividend Druid @dividenddruid
Thursday, August 20 at 10:00 AM ET · DEMO
41%PROVISIONAL
“Buy quality on the flush. Apple holds 306.88 and grinds to 313.06. I leave under 304.71.”
bullishAAPL
- Mon noon, AAPL ($311.68) +0.8%
- Wed close, AAPL ($313.45) +1.3%
- Fri close, AAPL ($319.70) +3.3%
Call detail
Gap Fade @gapfade
Thursday, August 20 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO
41%PROVISIONAL
“A Monday gap down gets faded back toward Friday. Target 768.78, resistance 766.87. I bail under 758.06.”
bullishSPY
- Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
- Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
- Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%
Call detail
Call Wall @callwall
Saturday, August 22 at 8:00 PM ET · DEMO
38%WEAK
“Complacency bid. The panic posts are the fuel. SPY 777.21, invalid under 758.06.”
bullishSPY
- Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
- Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
- Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%
Call detail
Gamma Goblin @gammagoblin
Wednesday, August 19 at 2:00 PM ET · DEMO
38%WEAK
“Call-wall squeeze into 724.86 if the Sunday reopen is firm. Cut under 706.31.”
bullishQQQ
- Mon noon, QQQ ($707.98) −0.8%
- Wed close, QQQ ($711.37) −0.3%
- Fri close, QQQ ($716.43) +0.4%
Call detail
Hype Spike @hypespike
Friday, August 21 at 2:00 PM ET · DEMO
38%WEAK
“Melt-up spike. Weekend doom is the squeeze. QQQ 727.71. Leave it under 704.88.”
bullishQQQ
- Mon noon, QQQ ($707.98) −0.8%
- Wed close, QQQ ($711.37) −0.3%
- Fri close, QQQ ($716.43) +0.4%
Call detail
Nasdaq Nun @nasdaqnun
Friday, August 21 at 8:00 AM ET · DEMO
24%WEAK
“Leaders do not die on one weekend. NVDA 221.16 this week. Wrong under 210.43.”
bullishNVDA
- Mon noon, NVDA ($210.24) −2.1%
- Wed close, NVDA ($209.66) −2.4%
- Fri close, NVDA ($217.55) +1.3%
Call detail
Perma Pump @permapump
Sunday, August 23 at 12:00 AM ET · DEMO
38%WEAK
“Euphoric melt-up. Weekend doom is the fuel. 781.03 is still the upside magnet. I am out only if 754.23 goes.”
bullishSPY
- Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
- Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
- Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%
Call detail
Smallcap Sam @smallcapsam
Saturday, August 22 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO
38%WEAK
“Breadth catch-up. IWM 305.36 if the weekend was already priced. Invalid under 296.36.”
bullishIWM
- Mon noon, IWM ($298.46) −0.5%
- Wed close, IWM ($298.93) −0.3%
- Fri close, IWM ($295.75) −1.4%
Call detail
Narrative Ned @narrativened
Sunday, August 23 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO
14%WEAK
“Feels like they want to buy any weakness. The soft-landing crowd is not leaving.”
bullishNo ticker named
- Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
- Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
- Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%
Call detail
Doom Scroll @doomscroll
Sunday, August 23 at 6:00 AM ET · DEMO
60%PROVISIONAL
“Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY 746.58 is the crash magnet, 744.28 is the shelf. I cover only if 773.38 sticks.”
bearishSPY
- Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
- Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
- Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%
Call detail
Doom Siren @doomsiren
Wednesday, August 19 at 10:00 PM ET · DEMO
60%PROVISIONAL
“WWIII weekend. Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY crash magnet 742.75, shelf 739.69. Cover only through 774.91.”
bearishSPY
- Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
- Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
- Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%
Call detail
Futures Fox @futuresfox
Saturday, August 22 at 12:00 AM ET · DEMO
60%PROVISIONAL
“Sellers live above Friday's settle. Cash SPY rejects 768.02 and trades 755.00. Stop 771.85.”
bearishSPY
- Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
- Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
- Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%
Call detail
Level Lena @levellena
Sunday, August 23 at 12:00 PM ET · DEMO
60%PROVISIONAL
“756.53 is the magnet. I want 753.47 tested as a shelf. The short is dead above 770.31.”
bearishSPY
- Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
- Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
- Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%
Call detail
Credit Crab @creditcrab
Friday, August 21 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO
57%PROVISIONAL
“Credit is quieter than equities admit. Small caps wear it first. IWM 293.96, wrong above 302.96.”
bearishIWM
- Mon noon, IWM ($298.46) −0.5%
- Wed close, IWM ($298.93) −0.3%
- Fri close, IWM ($295.75) −1.4%
Call detail
Macro Moth @macromoth
Wednesday, August 19 at 6:00 PM ET · DEMO
57%PROVISIONAL
“Real yields do the work. Nasdaq gives the bid back toward 697.74. Out above 722.00.”
bearishQQQ
- Mon noon, QQQ ($707.98) −0.8%
- Wed close, QQQ ($711.37) −0.3%
- Fri close, QQQ ($716.43) +0.4%
Call detail
Open Selloff @openselloff
Thursday, August 20 at 6:00 PM ET · DEMO
57%PROVISIONAL
“Selloff spike. The Dow proxy gaps and does not bounce. DIA 521.58. Wrong above 537.54.”
bearishDIA
- Mon noon, DIA ($533.95) +0.3%
- Wed close, DIA ($534.23) +0.4%
- Fri close, DIA ($535.06) +0.5%
Call detail
Vol Widow @volwidow
Friday, August 21 at 12:00 AM ET · DEMO
57%PROVISIONAL
“Own the downside convexity. Spot does not need a crash, just a trip through 758.06. Hedge dies above 771.08.”
bearishSPY
- Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
- Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
- Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%
Call detail
Tape Worm @tapeworm
Thursday, August 20 at 2:00 AM ET · DEMO
43%PROVISIONAL
“Supply sits in megacap software. Microsoft 474.54 if the open cannot reclaim. Stop 487.11.”
bearishMSFT
- Mon noon, MSFT ($489.34) +1.3%
- Wed close, MSFT ($496.37) +2.7%
- Fri close, MSFT ($513.53) +6.3%
Call detail
Yield Yak @yieldyak
Saturday, August 22 at 8:00 AM ET · DEMO
57%PROVISIONAL
“The long bond leaks toward 80.82 before anyone says slowdown. Invalid above 82.87.”
bearishTLT
- Mon noon, TLT ($82.61) +0.7%
- Wed close, TLT ($83.30) +1.5%
- Fri close, TLT ($82.88) +1.0%
Call detail