Doom versus melt-up · Monday open · GradedCalls FinTwit

Weeks Doom versus melt-up

Collect Wednesday, August 19 at 12:00 PM ET through Sunday, August 23 at 5:00 PM ET. Readout week of Aug 24.

Friday close to the open
Monday open
Monday, August 24 at 9:30 AM ET
Tape-0.24%with call
Crowd bearish · 43% bullish weight
Open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar
Monday noon
Monday, August 24 at 12:00 PM ET
Tape-0.20%with call
Crowd bearish · 43% bullish weight
Same week, at the close
Wed close
Wednesday, August 26 at 4:00 PM ET
Tape+0.04%flat vs call
Crowd bearish · 43% bullish weight
Same week, final close
Fri close
Friday, August 28 at 4:00 PM ET
Tape+0.48%against call
Crowd bearish · 43% bullish weight

What the market did

Monday gap, Friday regular-session close to the 9:30 AM ET open: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are -0.24% from Friday's regular-session close. The cohort was 43% conviction-weighted bullish. Realized tape is bearish. Weekend Noise Index is 53% panic posts. The crowd and the tape agree so far. The gap is Friday's regular-session close to the regular-session open. Descriptive only. Not a signal.

Conviction-weighted consensus

43% bullish · 57% bearish · crowd bearish

SPY+QQQ+DIA-0.24%with call from Friday's close

Watchlist and viral posts share this weekly board.

Monday open board

Doom versus melt-up

Latest checkpoint

GC Scale: STRONG 70%+, PROVISIONAL 40–69%, WEAK under 40%; 0% is EXIT LIQUIDITY.

Doom Scroll @doomscroll

Sunday, August 23 at 6:00 AM ET · DEMO

69%PROVISIONAL

“Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY 746.58 is the crash magnet, 744.28 is the shelf. I cover only if 773.38 sticks.”

bearishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%

Doom Siren @doomsiren

Wednesday, August 19 at 10:00 PM ET · DEMO

69%PROVISIONAL

“WWIII weekend. Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY crash magnet 742.75, shelf 739.69. Cover only through 774.91.”

bearishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%

Futures Fox @futuresfox

Saturday, August 22 at 12:00 AM ET · DEMO

69%PROVISIONAL

“Sellers live above Friday's settle. Cash SPY rejects 768.02 and trades 755.00. Stop 771.85.”

bearishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%

Level Lena @levellena

Sunday, August 23 at 12:00 PM ET · DEMO

69%PROVISIONAL

“756.53 is the magnet. I want 753.47 tested as a shelf. The short is dead above 770.31.”

bearishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%

Credit Crab @creditcrab

Friday, August 21 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“Credit is quieter than equities admit. Small caps wear it first. IWM 293.96, wrong above 302.96.”

bearishIWM

Mon noon, IWM ($298.46) −0.5%
Wed close, IWM ($298.93) −0.3%
Fri close, IWM ($295.75) −1.4%

Macro Moth @macromoth

Wednesday, August 19 at 6:00 PM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“Real yields do the work. Nasdaq gives the bid back toward 697.74. Out above 722.00.”

bearishQQQ

Mon noon, QQQ ($707.98) −0.8%
Wed close, QQQ ($711.37) −0.3%
Fri close, QQQ ($716.43) +0.4%

Open Selloff @openselloff

Thursday, August 20 at 6:00 PM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“Selloff spike. The Dow proxy gaps and does not bounce. DIA 521.58. Wrong above 537.54.”

bearishDIA

Mon noon, DIA ($533.95) +0.3%
Wed close, DIA ($534.23) +0.4%
Fri close, DIA ($535.06) +0.5%

Tape Worm @tapeworm

Thursday, August 20 at 2:00 AM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“Supply sits in megacap software. Microsoft 474.54 if the open cannot reclaim. Stop 487.11.”

bearishMSFT

Mon noon, MSFT ($489.34) +1.3%
Wed close, MSFT ($496.37) +2.7%
Fri close, MSFT ($513.53) +6.3%

Vol Widow @volwidow

Friday, August 21 at 12:00 AM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“Own the downside convexity. Spot does not need a crash, just a trip through 758.06. Hedge dies above 771.08.”

bearishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%

Yield Yak @yieldyak

Saturday, August 22 at 8:00 AM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“The long bond leaks toward 80.82 before anyone says slowdown. Invalid above 82.87.”

bearishTLT

Mon noon, TLT ($82.61) +0.7%
Wed close, TLT ($83.30) +1.5%
Fri close, TLT ($82.88) +1.0%

Dividend Druid @dividenddruid

Thursday, August 20 at 10:00 AM ET · DEMO

37%WEAK

“Buy quality on the flush. Apple holds 306.88 and grinds to 313.06. I leave under 304.71.”

bullishAAPL

Mon noon, AAPL ($311.68) +0.8%
Wed close, AAPL ($313.45) +1.3%
Fri close, AAPL ($319.70) +3.3%

Gap Fade @gapfade

Thursday, August 20 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO

37%WEAK

“A Monday gap down gets faded back toward Friday. Target 768.78, resistance 766.87. I bail under 758.06.”

bullishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%

Call Wall @callwall

Saturday, August 22 at 8:00 PM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Complacency bid. The panic posts are the fuel. SPY 777.21, invalid under 758.06.”

bullishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%

Gamma Goblin @gammagoblin

Wednesday, August 19 at 2:00 PM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Call-wall squeeze into 724.86 if the Sunday reopen is firm. Cut under 706.31.”

bullishQQQ

Mon noon, QQQ ($707.98) −0.8%
Wed close, QQQ ($711.37) −0.3%
Fri close, QQQ ($716.43) +0.4%

Hype Spike @hypespike

Friday, August 21 at 2:00 PM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Melt-up spike. Weekend doom is the squeeze. QQQ 727.71. Leave it under 704.88.”

bullishQQQ

Mon noon, QQQ ($707.98) −0.8%
Wed close, QQQ ($711.37) −0.3%
Fri close, QQQ ($716.43) +0.4%

Nasdaq Nun @nasdaqnun

Friday, August 21 at 8:00 AM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Leaders do not die on one weekend. NVDA 221.16 this week. Wrong under 210.43.”

bullishNVDA

Mon noon, NVDA ($210.24) −2.1%
Wed close, NVDA ($209.66) −2.4%
Fri close, NVDA ($217.55) +1.3%

Perma Pump @permapump

Sunday, August 23 at 12:00 AM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Euphoric melt-up. Weekend doom is the fuel. 781.03 is still the upside magnet. I am out only if 754.23 goes.”

bullishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%

Smallcap Sam @smallcapsam

Saturday, August 22 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Breadth catch-up. IWM 305.36 if the weekend was already priced. Invalid under 296.36.”

bullishIWM

Mon noon, IWM ($298.46) −0.5%
Wed close, IWM ($298.93) −0.3%
Fri close, IWM ($295.75) −1.4%

Narrative Ned @narrativened

Sunday, August 23 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO

10%WEAK

“Feels like they want to buy any weakness. The soft-landing crowd is not leaving.”

bullishNo ticker named

Mon noon, SPY ($764.52) −0.2%
Wed close, SPY ($766.08) 0.0%
Fri close, SPY ($769.35) +0.5%

Weekend Noise Index

Share of this weekend's calls tagged panic, crash, or selloff, next to the equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA move from Friday's regular-session close. Descriptive only. Not a score.

53% panic · 47% melt-up

Engagement-weighted panic share 56%.

Monday open
-0.24%
Monday noon
-0.20%
VIX at the open
+5.09%
VIX at noon
+3.83%

Market move used for grading

Market move used for grading

SPY

-0.12%

Mon open

DIA

-0.07%

Mon open

QQQ

-0.53%

Mon open

VIX

+5.09%

Mon open

AAPL

+0.69%

Mon open

IWM

-0.14%

Mon open

MSFT

-0.01%

Mon open

NVDA

+0.38%

Mon open

TLT

+0.54%

Mon open