Panic with a pin · Monday open · GradedCalls FinTwit

Weeks Panic with a pin

Collect Wednesday, August 26 at 12:00 PM ET through Sunday, August 30 at 5:00 PM ET. Readout week of Aug 31.

Friday close to the open
Monday open
Monday, August 31 at 9:30 AM ET
Tape-0.24%against call
Crowd bullish · 56% bullish weight
Open of the 12:00 PM ET 5-minute bar
Monday noon
Monday, August 31 at 12:00 PM ET
Tape-0.49%against call
Crowd bullish · 56% bullish weight
Same week, at the close
Wed close
Wednesday, September 2 at 4:00 PM ET
Tape-0.79%against call
Crowd bullish · 56% bullish weight
Same week, final close
Fri close
Friday, September 4 at 4:00 PM ET
Tape+0.09%with call
Crowd bullish · 56% bullish weight

What the market did

Monday gap, Friday regular-session close to the 9:30 AM ET open: equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA are -0.24% from Friday's regular-session close. The cohort was 56% conviction-weighted bullish. Realized tape is bearish. Weekend Noise Index is 47% panic posts. The crowd is fighting the tape so far. The gap is Friday's regular-session close to the regular-session open. Descriptive only. Not a signal.

Conviction-weighted consensus

56% bullish · 44% bearish · crowd bullish

SPY+QQQ+DIA-0.24%against call from Friday's close

Watchlist and viral posts share this weekly board.

Monday open board

Panic with a pin

Latest checkpoint

GC Scale: STRONG 70%+, PROVISIONAL 40–69%, WEAK under 40%; 0% is EXIT LIQUIDITY.

Doom Siren @doomsiren

Wednesday, August 26 at 10:00 PM ET · DEMO

69%PROVISIONAL

“WWIII weekend. Markets are doomed. Sell the open. SPY crash magnet 746.27, shelf 743.19. Cover only through 778.58.”

bearishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($765.42) −0.5%
Wed close, SPY ($765.16) −0.5%
Fri close, SPY ($770.19) +0.1%

Futures Fox @futuresfox

Saturday, August 29 at 12:00 AM ET · DEMO

69%PROVISIONAL

“Fail at 771.66 and rotate back to 766.27. This is not a breakdown call. Stop 773.97.”

bearishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($765.42) −0.5%
Wed close, SPY ($765.16) −0.5%
Fri close, SPY ($770.19) +0.1%

Gap Fade @gapfade

Thursday, August 27 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO

69%PROVISIONAL

“Fade a Monday pop back to 715.00 on QQQ. Resistance 719.30. Wrong above 722.16.”

bearishQQQ

Mon noon, QQQ ($713.97) −0.3%
Wed close, QQQ ($709.24) −1.0%
Fri close, QQQ ($718.96) +0.4%

Credit Crab @creditcrab

Friday, August 28 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“No credit stress, but I do not want small-cap beta. 291.02 if it slips. Stop 298.71.”

bearishIWM

Mon noon, IWM ($293.16) −0.9%
Wed close, IWM ($294.01) −0.6%
Fri close, IWM ($296.01) +0.1%

Doom Scroll @doomscroll

Sunday, August 30 at 6:00 AM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“This calm is the crash setup. 746.27 is in play. I am wrong above 778.58.”

bearishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($765.42) −0.5%
Wed close, SPY ($765.16) −0.5%
Fri close, SPY ($770.19) +0.1%

Macro Moth @macromoth

Wednesday, August 26 at 6:00 PM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“Leadership rolls. 702.10 on QQQ if the range breaks down. Invalid above 725.03.”

bearishQQQ

Mon noon, QQQ ($713.97) −0.3%
Wed close, QQQ ($709.24) −1.0%
Fri close, QQQ ($718.96) +0.4%

Open Selloff @openselloff

Thursday, August 27 at 6:00 PM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“Selloff spike. The Dow proxy gaps and does not bounce. DIA 524.36. Wrong above 540.41.”

bearishDIA

Mon noon, DIA ($531.71) −0.6%
Wed close, DIA ($530.62) −0.8%
Fri close, DIA ($534.08) −0.2%

Vol Widow @volwidow

Friday, August 28 at 12:00 AM ET · DEMO

66%PROVISIONAL

“Realized stays quiet, but a drift under 760.12 pays the hedge. Stop 775.50.”

bearishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($765.42) −0.5%
Wed close, SPY ($765.16) −0.5%
Fri close, SPY ($770.19) +0.1%

Narrative Ned @narrativened

Sunday, August 30 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO

42%PROVISIONAL

“Something about this tape feels tired. I would not chase strength.”

bearishNo ticker named

Mon noon, SPY ($765.42) −0.5%
Wed close, SPY ($765.16) −0.5%
Fri close, SPY ($770.19) +0.1%

Dividend Druid @dividenddruid

Thursday, August 27 at 10:00 AM ET · DEMO

37%WEAK

“Apple respects 317.78 and tags 322.90. I leave the add under 315.86.”

bullishAAPL

Mon noon, AAPL ($314.67) −1.6%
Wed close, AAPL ($324.96) +1.6%
Fri close, AAPL ($319.97) +0.1%

Level Lena @levellena

Sunday, August 30 at 12:00 PM ET · DEMO

37%WEAK

“Pin just over Friday. Long against 767.81, resistance 773.20, target a tag of 772.43. Out under 764.73.”

bullishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($765.42) −0.5%
Wed close, SPY ($765.16) −0.5%
Fri close, SPY ($770.19) +0.1%

Smallcap Sam @smallcapsam

Saturday, August 29 at 4:00 PM ET · DEMO

37%WEAK

“IWM holds 293.98 and squeezes toward 299.89. Invalid under 292.20.”

bullishIWM

Mon noon, IWM ($293.16) −0.9%
Wed close, IWM ($294.01) −0.6%
Fri close, IWM ($296.01) +0.1%

Tape Worm @tapeworm

Thursday, August 27 at 2:00 AM ET · DEMO

37%WEAK

“Microsoft is a 516.61 magnet. Long into that print, out through 508.39. Resistance sits at 517.64.”

bullishMSFT

Mon noon, MSFT ($509.80) −0.7%
Wed close, MSFT ($496.82) −3.3%
Fri close, MSFT ($499.70) −2.7%

Call Wall @callwall

Saturday, August 29 at 8:00 PM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Complacency bid. The panic posts are the fuel. SPY 780.89, invalid under 761.66.”

bullishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($765.42) −0.5%
Wed close, SPY ($765.16) −0.5%
Fri close, SPY ($770.19) +0.1%

Gamma Goblin @gammagoblin

Wednesday, August 26 at 2:00 PM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Gamma pins, then releases higher toward 778.58. I am out under 763.20.”

bullishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($765.42) −0.5%
Wed close, SPY ($765.16) −0.5%
Fri close, SPY ($770.19) +0.1%

Hype Spike @hypespike

Friday, August 28 at 2:00 PM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Melt-up spike. Weekend doom is the squeeze. QQQ 730.76. Leave it under 707.83.”

bullishQQQ

Mon noon, QQQ ($713.97) −0.3%
Wed close, QQQ ($709.24) −1.0%
Fri close, QQQ ($718.96) +0.4%

Nasdaq Nun @nasdaqnun

Friday, August 28 at 8:00 AM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“NVDA bases and pushes 222.99. Leave it under 213.63.”

bullishNVDA

Mon noon, NVDA ($219.50) +0.9%
Wed close, NVDA ($224.41) +3.2%
Fri close, NVDA ($230.36) +5.9%

Perma Pump @permapump

Sunday, August 30 at 12:00 AM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Melt-up after the quiet posts. 784.74 is still the number. I am wrong under 755.50.”

bullishSPY

Mon noon, SPY ($765.42) −0.5%
Wed close, SPY ($765.16) −0.5%
Fri close, SPY ($770.19) +0.1%

Yield Yak @yieldyak

Saturday, August 29 at 8:00 AM ET · DEMO

34%WEAK

“Yields stall here. TLT back to 83.87. Out if 82.05 breaks.”

bullishTLT

Mon noon, TLT ($82.25) −0.8%
Wed close, TLT ($81.95) −1.1%
Fri close, TLT ($82.21) −0.8%

Weekend Noise Index

Share of this weekend's calls tagged panic, crash, or selloff, next to the equal-weight SPY, QQQ, and DIA move from Friday's regular-session close. Descriptive only. Not a score.

47% panic · 53% melt-up

Engagement-weighted panic share 56%.

Monday open
-0.24%
Monday noon
-0.49%
VIX at the open
+5.61%
VIX at noon
+5.68%

Market move used for grading

Market move used for grading

SPY

-0.26%

Mon open

DIA

-0.28%

Mon open

QQQ

-0.18%

Mon open

VIX

+5.61%

Mon open

AAPL

-0.03%

Mon open

IWM

-0.22%

Mon open

MSFT

-0.61%

Mon open

NVDA

+0.61%

Mon open

TLT

-0.49%

Mon open